This weekend we begin to celebrate our independence from Britain, but we won’t be celebrating independence from Iran, Iraq, or Saudi Arabia anytime soon.
While President Bush said his goal was to cut dependence on foreign oil by 75 percent by 2025, a Department of Energy agency says that his goal is about as attainable as my goal of playing centerfield for the Oakland A’s.
The Energy Information Administration says oil consumption in North America (mostly from the U.S.) will increase by 38 percent between 2003 and 2030, while the global demand for oil (due in large part to China and India) will increase by 47 percent to 118 million barrels per day.
The country expected to provide the most of the additional supply will be (say it with me) Iran!
The report, which is revised every year, says global consumption of renewable fuels will nearly double by 2030, but considering U.S. production of ethanol and biodiesel increases that much every year, that’s not saying much, and would only decrease the ration of crude-renewable fuel used from 5 to 1 to 4 to 1.
Whomever estimated the oil prices for the coming decades had their heads (say it with me) in the sand. The "reference case" (see graphic) estimates that oil prices will be lower in 25 years than they are now, a nice trick considering no dinosaurs have died in millennia to increase supply and most estimates are that we’ve already sucked half of the oil that there ever was out of the ground (Google Hubbert’s Peak if you don’t believe me).
More depressing facts from the report:
Worldwide marketed energy consumption is projected to grow by 71 percent between 2003 and 2030.
The report projects an increase in OPEC supply of only 11.8 million barrel per day over the same period (so I hope we stay friends with Venezuela and Canada, since that’s 27 million barrels short of what the world will need).
Oil could be has high as $96 a barrel by 2030, or one-third more than today.
So go take the family out for a nice long drive to celebrate the 4th. You may not get many more opportunities.
e-85 Ethanol stations on the rise – updated list of renewable fuels, a state by state list
Near the end of April, the USA had 619 e85 ethanol fueling stations. Today the number of e85 ethanol fueling stations has grown to 637. Even though there may be 18 more stations out there, the ethanol stations only seem to be poping up in states in Minnesota and Illinois, leaving the rest of the nation with sparse coverage. South Carolina actually was the big gainer for the past couple of months with 5 new stations, nearly a 14% increase in the number of ethanol stations in the state. Not too bad, however it is still concerning to see 14 states that have 0 ethanol stations.
Below you will find a listing of Alternative Fuel Station counts by state and fuel type, CNG – Compressed Natural Gas, E85 – 85% Ethanol, LPG – Propane, ELEC – Electric, BD – Biodiesel, HY – Hydrogen and LNG – Liquefied Natural Gas.
As of 6/16/2006
| STATE | CNG | E85 | LPG | ELEC | BD | HY | LNG | Totals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 1 | 1 | 74 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 77 |
| Alaska | 0 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 |
| Arizona | 31 | 5 | 68 | 13 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 126 |
| Arkansas | 4 | 0 | 57 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 61 |
| California | 179 | 3 | 257 | 406 | 20 | 9 | 30 | 904 |
| Colorado | 21 | 11 | 68 | 2 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 121 |
| Connecticut | 11 | 0 | 19 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 34 |
| Delaware | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
| DC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Florida | 22 | 2 | 70 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 105 |
| Georgia | 16 | 6 | 48 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 87 |
| Hawaii | 0 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 17 |
| Idaho | 8 | 1 | 28 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 40 |
| Illinois | 11 | 102 | 73 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 197 |
| Indiana | 11 | 19 | 42 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 82 |
| Iowa | 0 | 38 | 29 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 75 |
| Kansas | 3 | 8 | 49 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 64 |
| Kentucky | 0 | 5 | 31 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 41 |
| Louisiana | 8 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22 |
| Maine | 1 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| Maryland | 13 | 4 | 19 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 39 |
| Massachusetts | 9 | 0 | 28 | 27 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 65 |
| Michigan | 15 | 6 | 83 | 0 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 119 |
| Minnesota | 3 | 205 | 34 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 244 |
| Mississippi | 0 | 0 | 40 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 46 |
| Missouri | 6 | 28 | 88 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 125 |
| Montana | 2 | 5 | 31 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 44 |
| Nebraska | 1 | 26 | 23 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 51 |
| Nevada | 15 | 1 | 25 | 0 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 52 |
| New Hampshire | 3 | 0 | 14 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 37 |
| New Jersey | 15 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 27 |
| New Mexico | 8 | 3 | 55 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 68 |
| New York | 37 | 6 | 28 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 75 |
| North Carolina | 11 | 9 | 65 | 0 | 36 | 0 | 0 | 121 |
| North Dakota | 4 | 23 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 43 |
| Ohio | 12 | 7 | 75 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 109 |
| Oklahoma | 53 | 4 | 72 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 135 |
| Oregon | 14 | 1 | 34 | 4 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 67 |
| Pennsylvania | 31 | 1 | 63 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 106 |
| Rhode Island | 6 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 |
| South Carolina | 5 | 36 | 34 | 2 | 35 | 0 | 0 | 112 |
| South Dakota | 0 | 35 | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 57 |
| Tennessee | 6 | 5 | 51 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 70 |
| Texas | 23 | 4 | 627 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 2 | 669 |
| Utah | 63 | 3 | 27 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 96 |
| Vermont | 1 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 14 |
| Virginia | 12 | 2 | 26 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 50 |
| Washington | 14 | 2 | 60 | 0 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 94 |
| West Virginia | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 |
| Wisconsin | 18 | 14 | 56 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 90 |
| Wyoming | 11 | 4 | 33 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 61 |
| Totals by Fuel: | 742 | 637 | 2710 | 490 | 362 | 14 | 37 | 4992 |
E-Diesel – Ethanol and diesel produces eDiesel flex fuel
E-Diesel is a fuel that uses additives in order to allow blending of ethanol with diesel. It includes ethanol blends of 7.7% to 15% and up to 5% special additives that prevent the ethanol and diesel from separating at very low temperatures or if water contamination occurs. Use of E-diesel would also increase demand for ethanol, as diesel vehicles in the U.S. consume approximately 36 billion gallons of diesel a year EIA Annual Energy.
E-Diesel is currently an experimental flex fuel and is being developed by many companies, who can receive federal ethanol tax credit when blending ethanol with diesel. Demonstrations are currently being conducted on the use of E-diesel in heavy-duty trucks, buses, and farm machinery. There is a light increase in operating costs due to a slight (7-10%) mileage decreases with E-diesel use. However, there are many environmental benefits to using e-diesel, such as reduced emissions of Particulate Matter from 27% to 41%, Carbon Monoxide from 20% to 27%, Nitrogen Oxides 4% to 5%.
Supporters of E-diesel see it as a major new market for ethanol and an effective way to help engine manufacturers meet tough new emission standards from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. For instance, it can take up to 10 years for manufacturers to phase in new engine designs that reduce emissions and meet tough new EPA standards. However, switching to E-diesel gets immediate the environmental benefits.