Becoming Forget Oil Independent

This weekend we begin to celebrate our independence from Britain, but we won’t be celebrating independence from Iran, Iraq, or Saudi Arabia anytime soon.


While President Bush said his goal was to cut dependence on foreign oil by 75 percent by 2025, a Department of Energy agency says that his goal is about as attainable as my goal of playing centerfield for the Oakland A’s.

The Energy Information Administration says oil consumption in North America (mostly from the U.S.) will increase by 38 percent between 2003 and 2030, while the global demand for oil (due in large part to China and India) will increase by 47 percent to 118 million barrels per day.

The country expected to provide the most of the additional supply will be (say it with me) Iran!

The report, which is revised every year, says global consumption of renewable fuels will nearly double by 2030, but considering U.S. production of ethanol and biodiesel increases that much every year, that’s not saying much, and would only decrease the ration of crude-renewable fuel used from 5 to 1 to 4 to 1.

Whomever estimated the oil prices for the coming decades had their heads (say it with me) in the sand. The "reference case" (see graphic) estimates that oil prices will be lower in 25 years than they are now, a nice trick considering no dinosaurs have died in millennia to increase supply and most estimates are that we’ve already sucked half of the oil that there ever was out of the ground (Google Hubbert’s Peak if you don’t believe me).

More depressing facts from the report:

Worldwide marketed energy consumption is projected to grow by 71 percent between 2003 and 2030.

The report projects an increase in OPEC supply of only 11.8 million barrel per day over the same period (so I hope we stay friends with Venezuela and Canada, since that’s 27 million barrels short of what the world will need).

Oil could be has high as $96 a barrel by 2030, or one-third more than today.

So go take the family out for a nice long drive to celebrate the 4th. You may not get many more opportunities.

source

e-85 Ethanol stations on the rise – updated list of renewable fuels, a state by state list

Near the end of April, the USA had 619 e85 ethanol fueling stations. Today the number of e85 ethanol fueling stations has grown to 637. Even though there may be 18 more stations out there, the ethanol stations only seem to be poping up in states in Minnesota and Illinois, leaving the rest of the nation with sparse coverage. South Carolina actually was the big gainer for the past couple of months with 5 new stations, nearly a 14% increase in the number of ethanol stations in the state. Not too bad, however it is still concerning to see 14 states that have 0 ethanol stations.

Below you will find a listing of Alternative Fuel Station counts by state and fuel type, CNG – Compressed Natural Gas, E85 – 85% Ethanol, LPG – Propane, ELEC – Electric, BD – Biodiesel, HY – Hydrogen and LNG – Liquefied Natural Gas.

As of 6/16/2006

STATE CNG E85 LPG ELEC BD HY LNG Totals
Alabama 1 1 74 0 1 0 0 77
Alaska 0 0 11 0 0 0 0 11
Arizona 31 5 68 13 4 1 4 126
Arkansas 4 0 57 0 0 0 0 61
California 179 3 257 406 20 9 30 904
Colorado 21 11 68 2 19 0 0 121
Connecticut 11 0 19 3 1 0 0 34
Delaware 1 0 3 0 3 0 0 7
DC 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 2
Florida 22 2 70 7 4 0 0 105
Georgia 16 6 48 0 17 0 0 87
Hawaii 0 0 4 10 3 0 0 17
Idaho 8 1 28 0 2 0 1 40
Illinois 11 102 73 0 11 0 0 197
Indiana 11 19 42 0 10 0 0 82
Iowa 0 38 29 0 8 0 0 75
Kansas 3 8 49 0 4 0 0 64
Kentucky 0 5 31 0 5 0 0 41
Louisiana 8 0 14 0 0 0 0 22
Maine 1 0 6 0 2 0 0 9
Maryland 13 4 19 0 3 0 0 39
Massachusetts 9 0 28 27 1 0 0 65
Michigan 15 6 83 0 13 2 0 119
Minnesota 3 205 34 0 2 0 0 244
Mississippi 0 0 40 0 6 0 0 46
Missouri 6 28 88 0 3 0 0 125
Montana 2 5 31 0 6 0 0 44
Nebraska 1 26 23 0 1 0 0 51
Nevada 15 1 25 0 10 1 0 52
New Hampshire 3 0 14 10 10 0 0 37
New Jersey 15 0 11 0 1 0 0 27
New Mexico 8 3 55 0 2 0 0 68
New York 37 6 28 0 4 0 0 75
North Carolina 11 9 65 0 36 0 0 121
North Dakota 4 23 16 0 0 0 0 43
Ohio 12 7 75 0 15 0 0 109
Oklahoma 53 4 72 1 5 0 0 135
Oregon 14 1 34 4 14 0 0 67
Pennsylvania 31 1 63 0 11 0 0 106
Rhode Island 6 0 4 2 0 0 0 12
South Carolina 5 36 34 2 35 0 0 112
South Dakota 0 35 22 0 0 0 0 57
Tennessee 6 5 51 0 8 0 0 70
Texas 23 4 627 2 11 0 2 669
Utah 63 3 27 0 3 0 0 96
Vermont 1 0 7 1 5 0 0 14
Virginia 12 2 26 0 10 0 0 50
Washington 14 2 60 0 18 0 0 94
West Virginia 2 2 8 0 0 0 0 12
Wisconsin 18 14 56 0 2 0 0 90
Wyoming 11 4 33 0 13 0 0 61
Totals by Fuel: 742 637 2710 490 362 14 37 4992